What is the significance of the most recent SWS survey in the Lingayen-Lucena corridor that showed Sen. Benigno “Noynoy” Aquino getting the support of 50 per cent of among 1,200 respondents, 90 per cent of whom were from the D and E classes? What accounts for the phenomenal popularity of Noynoy despite his late entry into the presidential contest for 2010?
Predictably, the interpretation of the survey results has thus far gone along partisan lines: from outright disbelief and rejection to enthusiastic affirmation. Detractors were quick to point out that: a) the survey was limited in scope, not having been conducted nationwide; b) it’s still a good eight months away from election day on May 10, 2010 and many developments and changes will take place between now and then; and c) the results are biased and not credible.
Senators Aquino and Mar Roxas said that the Liberal Party was aware of eight other surveys covering other parts of the country (meaning, including Visayas and Mindanao) and which showed Noynoy winning by a similarly huge margin.
According to marketing guru Philip Kotler, any brand or product that has a market share of at least 40 per cent is regarded as a “dominant market leader.” Prof. Eduardo Roberto, a co-author of Prof. Kotler, notes that Fidel Ramos eked out a slim victory over several rivals in 1992 by winning 23 per cent of the vote. This underlines the enormity of the challenge now facing Noynoy’s rivals, considering that they polled only from 12 to 14 per cent each.
So only one serious doubt needs to be addressed: will these results last until election day in May 2010? ‘Euphoria’ or ‘Cory magic’ is being cited as the main factor that caused this ‘Noynoy bubble’ that may eventually burst in the heat of a frenzied campaign.
Let’s review once more the fateful events of August 2009, especially the funeral of President Corazon Aquino last August 5. It was a special public holiday: no work and no schools. What made tens of thousands of people (totaling in the millions by some estimates) go out into the streets, stand and wait in the rain for hours, and express their affection for a former President who stepped down from office 17 years ago? They were certainly not trucked and bussed (‘hakot’ in the vernacular); nor were they paid or coerced to do what they did.
What else can we say except that perhaps, they were moved by genuine affection for President Cory and they wanted to express their sympathy with the bereaved family? Is such affection and sympathy a fleeting feeling or emotion? But wait, didn’t we see and hear many of those who joined the procession say that they wanted to let their children witness this historic event so they can understand what their parents and elders fought for many years ago?
Didn’t President Cory’s detractors declare and claim --- time and time again, whenever they scoffed at what they claimed were very small numbers of protesters on Ayala Avenue --- that her ‘magic’ was gone and her influence was a spent force?
The events of August and September 2009 are part of a historical continuum: the ebb and flow of events in the life of our nation from Ninoy Aquino’s assassination to Cory Aquino’s death. Through four post-Marcos regimes --- Aquino, Ramos, Estrada and Macapagal-Arroyo --- Filipinos have realized the primordial importance of good governance. They have, realized, too, that good governance depends significantly on the integrity and purity of the heart of the leader.
The emergence of Noynoy Aquino as the leading presidential candidate for 2010 is an expression of the people’s sentiments, an echo of the people’s voice, or simply vox populi. These sentiments found concrete expression when two major historical events that occurred 26 years apart converged into a single defining moment during President Cory’s funeral last August 5.
Is vox populi also vox Dei?
Sen. Mar Roxas has framed this contest as one between good and evil. Some analysts deplore this formulation, characterizing it as being both naïve and simplistic. I agree with Sen. Roxas. Our people are weary and tired of corruption and decadence. They want somebody who will keep faith with their trust. And yes, they want a leader who is God-fearing and prayerful.
For any one of the other presidential contenders to chip away at Noynoy Aquino’s huge head start, such candidate must be able to define himself in a clear-cut way as a distinctive alternative. He, too, must be capable of connecting with the electorate in a way that generates genuine affection and empathy. In an era of high-definition technology, people want clear and bright images, not shades of grey. Those who aspire to claim the higher ground of political ascendancy must project themselves as being truly honest, sincere and trustworthy.
What can happen between now and May 10, 2010 that will erode Noynoy’s seemingly enormous advantage? Let’s consider possible scenarios.
Scenario A: Noynoy’s credibility is seriously eroded by scandals, or he is shown to be grossly incompetent or inferior to other candidates who are decidedly more eloquent and charismatic.
Scenario B: Another candidate is able to capture the imagination of the electorate through sleek advertising, skillful use of social networking in the Internet, and massive campaign logistics.
Scenario C: A major calamity or catastrophe happens, shifting the focus of the citizenry’s attention to the administration, gathering sympathy and support for outgoing President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo and her anointed candidate.
What do the foregoing alternative scenarios have in common? The probability that any of these will, in fact, happen does not seem high or realistic.
Instead of peremptorily scoffing at the latest survey results, the other presidential candidates may do well to reexamine --- and redefine --- what is, in the language of marketing, their unique selling or value proposition. But first they must pay attention and listen to the voice of the people. Then, perhaps, they will understand better why our people are raising anew the Laban sign and singing Bayan Ko as the anthem of social change.
