Al Gore, Mt. Pinatubo and Santa Claus

What do Al Gore and Mt. Pinatubo have in common? This baffling question is the title of the final chapter of Superfreakonomics, a sequel to Freakonomics, by the tandem of University of Chicago Professor Stephen Levitt and former New York Times Magazine editor Stephen Dubner.

On June 15, 1991, Mt. Pinatubo, an erstwhile inactive volcano located in Zambales (after whom the ill-fated plane of President Ramon Magsaysay, a native of Zambales, was named) made global headlines when it made a massive eruption for nearly nine hours. And what is the common ground between Mt. Pinatubo and former US Vice President Al Gore who became a Nobel Peace laureate on account of his environmental advocacy? Let’s hear it from Prof. Levitt and Mr. Dubner:

“Mount Pinatubo was the most powerful volcanic eruption in nearly one hundred years. Within two hours of the main blast, sulfuric ash had reached 22 miles into the sky. By the time it was done, Pinatubo had discharged more than 20 million tons of sulfur dioxide into the stratosphere. What effect did that have on the environment?

“As it turned out, the stratospheric haze of sulfur dioxide acted like a layer of sunscreen, reducing the amount of solar radiation reaching the earth. For the next two years, as the haze was settling out, the earth cooled out by an average of nearly one degree Fahrenheit, or. .5 degrees Celsius. A single volcanic eruption practically reversed, albeit temporarily, the cumulative global warming of the previous hundred years.”

Learning from the Mt. Pinatubo eruption experience, Messrs. Levitt and Dubner went to Intellectual Ventures (IV), “one of the most unusual laboratories in the world”, in Bellevue, Washington (a suburb of Seattle) where they met with the team of Nathan Myrvhold, former chief technology officer of Microsoft. Mr. Myrvhold co-founded IV in 2000 with Edward Jung, who was Microsoft’s chief software architect and a biophysicist.

By the way, Nathan Myrvhold played a variety of roles at Microsoft: “futurist, strategist, founder of its research lab and whisperer-in-chief to Bill Gates”, who is also an investor and occasional inventor at IV.

One of the findings of Nathan Myrvhold’s IV team is that most of the global warming seen over the past few decades “might actually be due to good environmental stewardship” because ‘all the heavy-particulate pollution generated seems to have cooled the atmosphere by dimming the sun.”

Against conventional wisdom, they have realized that carbon dioxide is not poisonous and not the culprit in global warming. Their essential finding is that the current menu of proposed global warming solutions are “too little, too late and too optimistic.” That’s what got them to focus on replicating Mt. Pinatubo’s extraordinary feat.

They came up with an idea: why not create a “garden hose to the sky” or, to put it more technically, build “a stratospheric shield for climate stabilization?” How will this work?

First, there needs to be a base from which sulfur dioxide can be liquefied. The IV team has found a suitable site: the Athabasca oil sands in northern Alberta, Canada. There are big yellow mountains of stockpiled sulfur that have been separated from other waste components of oil, measuring a hundred meters high by a thousand meters wide each. “So you could put up one little pumping facility up there, and with one corner of those sulfur mountains, you could solve the global warming problem for the northern hemisphere,” point out Nathan Myrvhold.

A similar solution may be found for the southern hemisphere “because stratospheric air naturally spirals toward the poles, and because the arctic regions are more vulnerable to global warming.” The estimated total cost of this endeavor is $250 million which is $50 million less than what al Gore’s foundation is spending on public awareness efforts alone.

So there, fellow Filipinos: Mt. Pinatubo may have caused our people tremendous suffering and it may have set back progress and development in Central Luzon by two decades --- but its eruption has already brought about an unintended benefit. A competent think tank has come up with a potentially viable solution to global warming that is cost-effective and doable.

And where does Santa Claus come into the picture?

Well, the first chapter of the book has an even more catchy title: How Is a Street Prostitute Like a Department-Store Santa?

This is about an empirical study on conducted by Sudhir Venkatesh, a sociologist from Columbia University, on the actual day-to-day activities of prostitutes in Chicago. A capsule summary of his findings: A typical street prostitute works an average of 13 hours a week, performing 10 sexual acts, and earns an hourly wage of $27 an hour or $350 a week.”

And the answer to the question posed by our featured authors: A street prostitute, like a department-store Santa “both take advantage of short-term job opportunities brought about by holiday spikes in demand.”

Let’s focus on replicating Mt. Pinatubo’s tremendous feat and do our bit in addressing the problem of global warming.

MJ and Chiz: opposite views

Eight days away from the launching of his farewell global concert, Michael Jackson died from a suspected drug overdose that the LA county coroner has ruled as a homicide. Controversial in life, even his death remains shrouded in mystery. This Is It, a documentary on the rehearsals for his final concert, leaves a definitive imprint. The King of Pop is the greatest musical artist of this century.

He is the singer who made his craft a total audio-visual experience. He pioneered in making the musical video the ultimate medium for propagating universal messages on the core beliefs and values that give meaning to life: love, peace, environmental conservation, and sustainability.

This Is It was MJ’s last and greatest performance. To understand what this truly means we need to use the term "performance level." "Performance level" is the term used by directors when they tell singers and actors to give it their best and their all during a rehearsal. Every great athlete and artist knows exactly what this means. It means envisioning in one’s mind the actual conditions on play date or game time -- and delivering a performance that will not just elicit applause but give the performer himself a peak experience.

MJ was the epitome of professionalism. He was a no-nonsense performer. He was focused and composed. He was serene and centered. There were no tantrums or disruptive antics. His appearance at every rehearsal was a much-awaited moment for the stage crew and his fellow performers (dancers and singers). They deferred to him and he respected them.

But, of course, the documentary was edited for public viewing. There may have been off-camera episodes where his behavior and decorum may have been less than ideal. But it is difficult to imagine that this would have been totally opposite to what was preserved for public viewing.

What is remarkable about This Is It is that it provides us with an image of an artist with a consummate passion for excellence. In one scene, he requested that the audio volume be toned down a bit. "I cannot hear well in my inner ear," he told the director. In another, he said that the music must be played in such a way that it will "simmer."

Here was an artist who brooked no compromise with quality. Here was a performer who was also a leader who inspired his fellow performers to scale new heights of excellence. In life and in death, MJ continues to be a thriller. This Is It was his statement about himself; it was also his credo for the planet. Unless we truly care for our environment, we’re hurtling onto a path of self-destruction.

Self-destruction is what some critics have begun to say about Sen. Francis "Chiz" Escudero’s announcement last week that he had resigned from the Nationalist People’s Coalition (NPC).

A few days after the unexpected "bombshell," he won the support of the militant sector when he declared his opposition to the "contractualization" of labor. This is a position that is not likely to endear him to the business sector, one of the key groups whose support is crucial to any bandwagon effect, momentum, or propulsion that he wants to create for his presidential aspirations.

According to the World Bank-IFC, one of the biggest disincentives to investment in the Philippines is "inflexible labor laws." We have lost our competitiveness to the emergent economies of the ASEAN Ten (example: Vietnam) because of our minimum wage legislation. A draft bill is now being considered in the House that imposes a 20% limit on the percentage of the total workforce of a firm that may be considered contractual.

This proposed law works at cross-purposes with the government’s policy to establish the Philippines as a hub for business process outsourcing (BPO). It also threatens the semiconductor industry that is one of the leading dollar earners for the economy. Other key industries where there is a significant amount of contractual employment are ship crewing and agribusiness. In embracing the crusade against contractualization, Senator Escudero betrays a failure to grasp basic economic reality.

While portraying himself as an advocate of change, he seems to be oblivious of the important changes that have taken place in a globalized economy. If he had taken the time to talk to his erstwhile patron Eduardo Cojuangco, Jr., he would have learned that long before the latter assumed control of San Miguel Corporation, SMC had adopted the contractualization mode of employment. It spun off and contractualized the distribution of beer to local distributors, as well as bottle-cleaning and other manual tasks to outsourced contractors.

If he wants to be gain credibility as a national leader, Senator Escudero needs to reexamine his position on contractualization and other fundamental political and economic issues. Like MJ, he needs to prepare assiduously and be pay attention to the key aspects of what will enable him to perform well on the national political stage. MJ knew he had to be more than a good singer. Chiz Escudero must realize he needs to be more than just a smooth talker.

Beyond ‘weather-weather’, climate change

Politics, Philippine style, has always been a ‘weather, weather’ affair. There are no ideological divisions, no distinct choices of platforms: just a revolving door through which rulers pass, serve and leave office. Those in power in one administration are voted --- or booted --- out of power; those in the opposition take their turn at the helm. But the winds of change are blowing.

Writing on the two recent surveys of the Social Weather Stations that have established Sen. Benigno ‘Noynoy’ Aquino III as a clear frontrunner with still more than two months before the final cast of presidential candidates is known, SWS President Mahar Mangahas talks of climate change in the 2010 elections.

When I first read the headline of his recent newspaper column, my impression was he was citing climate change as one of the possible leading issues that will be decisive in next year’s elections, especially in the aftermath of two destructive typhoons that, scientists say, are part the phenomenon of global warming. But that is not what he meant.

He noted that despite Noynoy Aquino’s “substantial lead in the presidential race…the race is still long…(and) Ramon Magsaysay’s 69-31 point win over Elpidio Quirino in 1953, the most lopsided race in postwar history is still a safe record.” The key point, he emphasized, is this” “once one sees that a ‘climate change’ can happen in an election race, then one should realize that it can happen again.”

Climate change is a powerful metaphor; it is more emphatic than “game changer”. It’s not just the game of politics-as-usual that has changed. It’s the socio-political climate that is undergoing deep, profound change.

In a TV panel discussion earlier this week, former UP President Jose Abueva said that the choice of the next President goes beyond the stated or known qualifications and credentials of the candidates. He pointed out that the next President’s role “is defined by the expectation of our people” and “shaped by the circumstances of our time.”

He observed that there is a systemic failure: our highly centralized and concentrated form of government has failed to solve the poverty problem and respond to the Filipino masses’ basic needs. He said that there is “a collective failure of political leadership and institutions”, and that, as a result, our people have become aware and conscious that --- contrary to what the constitution declares --- sovereignty does not truly reside in them.

In view of this, what the country needs today, Mr. Abueva said, is a transforming, not a transactional President in the mold of the incumbent, that is, “somebody who can inspire followers and fellow leaders to raise their sights on the real problems (which are truly) institutional problems.” He said that the new President must be one who “can lead people in changing (and) redesigning the system”.

TV host Manolo Quezon echoes Mr. Mangahas’ reference to Ramon Magsaysay’s victory over Elpidio Quirino as a watershed event in terms of “climate change”. Dean Bocobo, a long-time friend of this writer from the First Quarter Storm days and a co-panelist of Mr. Abueva in Mr. Quezon’s TV program, also referred to President Magsaysay as a “game changer.”

So, finally, the crucial question emerges: Is Noynoy Aquino truly a harbinger of climate change in Philippine politics?

I was only four years old when Ramon Magsaysay died in a plane crash in Mt. Manunggal in Cebu. I recall faintly that there was sadness among the elders in my family and community upon hearing the sad news. This is how Wikipedia characterizes the Quirino administration:

“His six years as president were marked by notable postwar reconstruction, general economic gains, and increased economic aid from the United States. Basic social problems, however, particularly in the rural areas, remained unsolved, and his administration was tainted by widespread graft and corruption.”

If we’re looking to parallels in circumstances between the Quirino and Arroyo administrations, then, there is at least one: the reference to “widespread graft and corruption.” But our next President cannot simply ride on a tide of discontent; such leader must be perceived as a carrier of hope and a harbinger of real progress.

In my view, the climate change that people see in Noynoy Aquino is that he is a person who is honest and trustworthy. After a long season of corruption and decadence, we want to usher in a new era of good governance where leaders, starting from the President, will truly serve the best interests of the people --- and bring out the best in them.

I was appalled when a group of students in my corporate communication elective course at AIM quoted one of the presidential spokespersons as having said: “It’s not that government response (to the Typhoon Ondoy crisis) was slow. It’s just that the flood waters were too high.” It sounded almost like: “It’s not true that this government is corrupt. It’s just that (our critics’) standards are too high.”

Is it enough for the next President to be honest and trustworthy? Must he not be capable and articulate, too? Yes, to both questions, but honesty and trustworthiness are, far and away, the most essential qualities needed at this time. Having served in government under two Presidents with contrasting styles (namely, Corazon Aquino and Joseph Ejercito Estrada), I have experienced first-hand that, indeed, the leader’s character is of paramount significance.

Erap Estrada had charisma but, in the end, it was his character, not his lack of managerial ability that did him in. Cory Aquino stepped up and performed beyond her perceived level of competence. What shone through for her was her impeccable integrity, that she was honest and that she always kept faith with public trust.

In my view, the surge in public support for Noynoy is rooted in a belief that, like his well-loved mother, he, too, has the moral fitness and integrity for the position. Those that continue to disparage this phenomenon as being part of Cory magic or euphoria are in a state of denial. As pointed out by Mr. Mangahas, about two-thirds of his 60% rating came from supporters of other candidates. Many people had other candidates in mind --- but they have realized that Noynoy offers them a clear-cut, high-definition choice for President.

Now it is up to Noynoy to offer a concrete platform of government that will translate popular support to votes that will elect him as the country’s next President.

An end to cheating

“A lot of people can cheat. They cheat by just a little bit. When we remind people about their morality, they cheat less. When we get bigger distance from cheating, from the object of money, for example, people cheat more. And when we see cheating around us, particularly if it’s part of our own in-group, cheating goes up.”

Dan Ariely, a professor of behavioral economics at Duke University, came up worth the foregoing conclusions after conducting several experiments to validate certain intuitive assumptions about the way people behave.

In the aftermath of the deluge brought about by typhoons Ondoy and Pepeng, there’s been a lot of reflective thinking on what went wrong. Particularly instructive was a statement made by a friend, Felino (Jun) Palafox, an architect and urban planner, that the massive destruction was “not an act of God”, but an offshoot of an accumulation of human sins of omission and commission, especially those against the environment.

Indeed, a lot of people cheated. They cheated on the environment by constructing houses in areas already known to be danger or threat zones on account of being a water basin, as in the Marikina disaster. They cheated by cutting trees indiscriminately dumping their garbage mindlessly.

So what made them behave that way? Prof. Ariely’s experiments tell us a lot. (Readers may see the website: http://www.TED.com)

For example, when offered money in return for being able to recall the Ten Commandments from memory, they were more honest than when they were asked to declare how many questions in an economics quiz did they get right. Hence, Prof. Ariely concludes that people cheat less when they are reminded about morality.

When an actor was planted in a group that was being tested for honesty, the group readily followed the cheating initiated by the actor when he was wearing the sweatshirt of their own school. But, in another experiment, they did not follow a planted actor who was wearing the sweatshirt of their archrival school. They were more honest because they did not want to act in a way that was associated with an organization that they did not want to be identified with.

This latter experiment is what prompts him to hypothesize that “when we see cheating around us, particularly with our own in-group, cheating goes up.”

Being a behavioral economist, his focus was on trying to explain what went wrong with Wall Street. So he reflects: “What happens in a situation when you pay people lots of money to see reality in a slightly distorted way? What if, instead of money, you offered them stocks, stock options, derivatives and mortgage-backed securities? Could it be that with these more distant things, it’s something many steps removed from money for a much longer time, could it be that people would cheat even more?”

With these series of rhetorical questions, he offers an explanation for the reign of greed that brought Wall Street down late last year. Then he asks, “What happens to the social environment when people see other people behave around them in certain ways?” That’s a question we need to ask ourselves in our efforts to discern what it will take to bring about meaningful change in our country.

What do these findings imply for us Filipinos?

First, we need to be reminded about morality. Who can remind us in a way that will influence us to act morally, ethically or honestly? Only a credible leader who walks the talk; one who is perceived to be clearly good, ethical and moral. President Corazon Aquino was such a sterling role model. Hence, her legacy is that of faithful stewardship and good governance. Almost two decades after she stepped down from power, the Filipino people expressed their affection for her by braving rain and fatigue during her funeral procession.

Second, when a culture of cheating predominates, people tend to look the other way and would even be in denial of the reality, until they are jolted out of their indifference or complacency. This is what happened during all these years of the Arroyo presidency, particularly after the ‘Hello Garci’ scandal.

Many people lapsed into a state of denial, allowing themselves to be deluded into adopting a defeatist mindset expressed in the query, “Eh, sino ba ang ipapalit ninyo” (“So whom you will tap to replace her?). This was after they realized that the constitutional successor, Vice President Noli de Castro did not really offer the prospect of being a significantly better President.

This seeming lack of a sense of outrage among our citizenry prompted administration lackeys to run roughshod and throw out impeachment resolutions filed against the President. Using their superior numbers to steamroller the opposition, they have also mounted an attempt to change the constitution through the constituent assembly route after the Supreme Court previously ruled against the people’s initiative mode of charter change.

And then came the fateful events of August. A sea of yellow emerged and brought forth a fresh wave of optimism that yes, the spirit of Edsa Uno is still alive. And just as the final cast of characters for the 2010 presidential derby was shaping up came the deluge. The floods could not wash all the sins of the past away.

As an old song goes, “The answer, my friends, is blowing in the wind.” The winds of change are upon us.

We want honest government. We want a leader who will remind us that we can be good when we want to be good, that goodness is what will make our lives better. We need a leader we can believe in, a leader who can make us believe in our capacity for change.

Comments may be sent to sonnycoloma@gmail.com

After the deluge

In August 2007, while I was driving to work in Legazpi Village, right within Makati’s central business district, I was caught in a flash flood. As I drove down the skyway off-ramp toward Amorsolo street, I had no inkling that, within less than half an hour, I would need to get out and have my car pushed to higher ground as a nearby creek overflowed. My thoughts raced back to this unfortunate experience when I realized that so many others had been caught in a similar situation all over Metro Manila last Saturday as Typhoon Ondoy’s heavy rains lashed the metropolis.

Last weekend’s traumatic events serve as grim reminders that, indeed, we live in a state of constant turbulence and chaos. Consider the question that has become the signature of modern chaos theory: Does the flap of a butterfly’s wings in Brazil set off a tornado in Texas?

According to a conference paper read at the meeting of the Edward Lorenz American Association for the Advancement of Science in Washington, D.C. in 1972: “The flapping wing represents a small change in the initial condition of the system, which causes a chain of events leading to large-scale phenomena. Had the butterfly not flapped its wings, the trajectory of the system might have been vastly different.”

In 1961, Dr. Edward Lorenz himself underlined the dilemma of essential unpredictability in meteorology when he pointed out that weather forecasts are good for only up to one week.

On the eve of last Saturday’s disastrous floods, I listened to Kim Atienza’s report on PAGASA’s weather forecast on ABS-CBN’s TV Patrol. Typhoon Ondoy was heading towards Baler, Aurora and was expected to make landfall in Aurora province on Saturday evening. Provinces in the eastern coast from Aurora to Catanduanes were placed on signal number one alert. The network focused on hyping up the last episode that would bring down the curtains on its long-running tele-novela, Tayong Dalawa.

Metro Manilans went to bed on Friday night without the slightest hint of the horrible disaster that would unfold the next day.

But if we take a few steps back and reflect on the massive degradation of our environment --- coupled by the well-known onset of global warming and climate change --- we will realize that, indeed, last week’s disaster was not really totally unexpected.

This year’s Filipino Magsaysay laureate, lawyer Antonio Oposa, secured a landmark Supreme Court ruling directing all government agencies to do a massive cleanup of heavily polluted Manila Bay. This case highlights a well-known fact: that our waterways such as rivers, creeks and esteros are clogged with garbage mindlessly dumped by citizens that become the victims of typhoons and floods. Nature exacts severe revenge on its transgressors.

Sen. Loren Legarda, a leading advocate on climate change preparedness, points out that rampant illegal logging, soil erosion and siltation of rivers and waterways have magnified the deleterious effects of global warming that is responsible for heavier rainfall.

Disaster preparedness is now on everybody’s minds. But were we really prepared for the massive flash floods? Was there a rainfall tracking system that would have enabled authorities to issue timely alerts and evacuate people from flood-prone places like Provident Village in Marikina, Talayan Village in Quezon City and lakeshore areas in Muntinlupa City?

Clearly, the deluge happened when people least expected it --- and were most unprepared.

What if it happened on a weekday? Many children would have been in school --- and their parents working in factories or offices. Schools, factories and offices would have provided better sanctuary, except if these, too, were located in low-lying areas. But the stark reality stares at us: our homes and communities are ill prepared to cope with massive floods.

What can be done to ensure a better state of disaster preparedness?

First, PAGASA’s typhoon tracking and rainfall monitoring capabilities must be enhanced. We need reliable weather forecasts. How much has our government invested in modern technology to upgrade PAGASA’s forecasting and tracking capability?

Secondly, there must be better preparedness at the community level. I grew up where my parents still live: in barangay Pio del Pilar between Pasong Tamo and south superhighway. This area is always flooded, even after thunderstorms. People already know when to bring their vehicles to higher ground. I am surprised that Provident Village residents did not seem to have an orderly evacuation plan, considering that this was definitely not the first time that they experienced a flood of this magnitude.

Muntinlupa Congressman Rozzano Rufino Biazon has called for the immediate enactment of a disaster management bill that includes localized disaster preparedness. Rep. Emylou Talino-Mendoza of Cotabato notes that we have an over-centralized disaster control system. The National Disaster Control and Coordinating Center (NDCC) is lodged within the Department of National Defense; she believes there should be disaster management capability at the barangay level.

Third, there must be faster deployment of rescue and relief teams. For example, was it not possible to deploy army trucks to bring people to higher ground? Many newspaper pictures showed people walking along Commonwealth Avenue, Ortigas Avenue, and even EDSA. They were fleeing their homes on account of rising floodwaters. The UP gymnasium, for instance, could have been designated immediately as an evacuation center.

Fourth, local government units must enforce better garbage disposal to prevent clogging of creeks and esteros.

Fifth, illegal fish pens and other structures that impede smooth flow of water should be removed immediately. Lakeside barangays of Muntinlupa suffered greatly as a result of the overflowing of Laguna de Bay that is chronically clogged by water lilies.

Sixth, there must be a comprehensive response to global warming and climate change that is anchored on environmental protection.

Typhoon Ondoy has once again placed the Philippines at the center of global attention. What is deplorable is that this calamity happened in the national capital region itself where all government and private resources are already concentrated. Pointing to the hurricane Katrina disaster and the difficulties faced by the American authorities in fully coping with that disaster does not exculpate our leaders from their responsibilities.

Business owners and families must also take heed of the need to insure their properties against floods. Heightened consciousness about disaster preparedness is everybody’s business.

Comments may be sent to sonnycoloma@gmail.com

Understanding vox populi

What is the significance of the most recent SWS survey in the Lingayen-Lucena corridor that showed Sen. Benigno “Noynoy” Aquino getting the support of 50 per cent of among 1,200 respondents, 90 per cent of whom were from the D and E classes? What accounts for the phenomenal popularity of Noynoy despite his late entry into the presidential contest for 2010?

Predictably, the interpretation of the survey results has thus far gone along partisan lines: from outright disbelief and rejection to enthusiastic affirmation. Detractors were quick to point out that: a) the survey was limited in scope, not having been conducted nationwide; b) it’s still a good eight months away from election day on May 10, 2010 and many developments and changes will take place between now and then; and c) the results are biased and not credible.

Senators Aquino and Mar Roxas said that the Liberal Party was aware of eight other surveys covering other parts of the country (meaning, including Visayas and Mindanao) and which showed Noynoy winning by a similarly huge margin.

According to marketing guru Philip Kotler, any brand or product that has a market share of at least 40 per cent is regarded as a “dominant market leader.” Prof. Eduardo Roberto, a co-author of Prof. Kotler, notes that Fidel Ramos eked out a slim victory over several rivals in 1992 by winning 23 per cent of the vote. This underlines the enormity of the challenge now facing Noynoy’s rivals, considering that they polled only from 12 to 14 per cent each.

So only one serious doubt needs to be addressed: will these results last until election day in May 2010? ‘Euphoria’ or ‘Cory magic’ is being cited as the main factor that caused this ‘Noynoy bubble’ that may eventually burst in the heat of a frenzied campaign.

Let’s review once more the fateful events of August 2009, especially the funeral of President Corazon Aquino last August 5. It was a special public holiday: no work and no schools. What made tens of thousands of people (totaling in the millions by some estimates) go out into the streets, stand and wait in the rain for hours, and express their affection for a former President who stepped down from office 17 years ago? They were certainly not trucked and bussed (‘hakot’ in the vernacular); nor were they paid or coerced to do what they did.

What else can we say except that perhaps, they were moved by genuine affection for President Cory and they wanted to express their sympathy with the bereaved family? Is such affection and sympathy a fleeting feeling or emotion? But wait, didn’t we see and hear many of those who joined the procession say that they wanted to let their children witness this historic event so they can understand what their parents and elders fought for many years ago?

Didn’t President Cory’s detractors declare and claim --- time and time again, whenever they scoffed at what they claimed were very small numbers of protesters on Ayala Avenue --- that her ‘magic’ was gone and her influence was a spent force?

The events of August and September 2009 are part of a historical continuum: the ebb and flow of events in the life of our nation from Ninoy Aquino’s assassination to Cory Aquino’s death. Through four post-Marcos regimes --- Aquino, Ramos, Estrada and Macapagal-Arroyo --- Filipinos have realized the primordial importance of good governance. They have, realized, too, that good governance depends significantly on the integrity and purity of the heart of the leader.

The emergence of Noynoy Aquino as the leading presidential candidate for 2010 is an expression of the people’s sentiments, an echo of the people’s voice, or simply vox populi. These sentiments found concrete expression when two major historical events that occurred 26 years apart converged into a single defining moment during President Cory’s funeral last August 5.

Is vox populi also vox Dei?

Sen. Mar Roxas has framed this contest as one between good and evil. Some analysts deplore this formulation, characterizing it as being both naïve and simplistic. I agree with Sen. Roxas. Our people are weary and tired of corruption and decadence. They want somebody who will keep faith with their trust. And yes, they want a leader who is God-fearing and prayerful.

For any one of the other presidential contenders to chip away at Noynoy Aquino’s huge head start, such candidate must be able to define himself in a clear-cut way as a distinctive alternative. He, too, must be capable of connecting with the electorate in a way that generates genuine affection and empathy. In an era of high-definition technology, people want clear and bright images, not shades of grey. Those who aspire to claim the higher ground of political ascendancy must project themselves as being truly honest, sincere and trustworthy.

What can happen between now and May 10, 2010 that will erode Noynoy’s seemingly enormous advantage? Let’s consider possible scenarios.

Scenario A: Noynoy’s credibility is seriously eroded by scandals, or he is shown to be grossly incompetent or inferior to other candidates who are decidedly more eloquent and charismatic.

Scenario B: Another candidate is able to capture the imagination of the electorate through sleek advertising, skillful use of social networking in the Internet, and massive campaign logistics.

Scenario C: A major calamity or catastrophe happens, shifting the focus of the citizenry’s attention to the administration, gathering sympathy and support for outgoing President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo and her anointed candidate.

What do the foregoing alternative scenarios have in common? The probability that any of these will, in fact, happen does not seem high or realistic.

Instead of peremptorily scoffing at the latest survey results, the other presidential candidates may do well to reexamine --- and redefine --- what is, in the language of marketing, their unique selling or value proposition. But first they must pay attention and listen to the voice of the people. Then, perhaps, they will understand better why our people are raising anew the Laban sign and singing Bayan Ko as the anthem of social change.